La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 10 · 15:15 · Villarreal vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 48%
A 30% away win. The market says 14%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal48%65%−17
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés30%14%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 47% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 86% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 35% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 82% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinLossLossLossWin
- Jan 3 · at Elche (A)3-1
- Dec 21 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Dec 17 · at Racing Santander (A)1-2
- Dec 10 · v FC København (H)2-3
- Dec 6 · v Getafe (H)2-0
Deportivo Alavés
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Jan 4 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Osasuna (A)0-3
- Dec 17 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
- Dec 14 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Dec 6 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.