La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 5 · 19:00 · Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 52%
A 25% away win. The market says 15%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal52%64%−12
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña25%15%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 85% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 36% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 81% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 28 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Atletico Madrid (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-2
- May 24 · v Atlético Madrid (H)5-1
- May 24 · v Atletico Madrid (H)5-1
Deportivo La Coruña
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Aug 30 · v Valencia (H)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
- Aug 17 · v Elche (H)1-1
- May 31 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
- May 24 · at Real Valladolid (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.