La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 8 · 13:00 · Villarreal vs Elche
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 53%
A 25% away win. The market says 16%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal53%63%−11
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Elche25%16%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 84% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 37% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 80% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 28 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Feb 22 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Feb 18 · at Levante (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Getafe (A)1-2
- Feb 9 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
Elche
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Mar 1 · v Espanyol (H)2-2
- Feb 20 · at Athletic Club (A)1-2
- Feb 13 · v Osasuna (H)0-0
- Feb 7 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.