La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:15 · Villarreal vs Elche
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 67%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Elche14%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 13 · v Napoli (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Real Madrid (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Levante UD (H)3-1
- Sep 17 · at Málaga (A)3-1
- Sep 14 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
Elche
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Espanyol (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Real Madrid (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.