La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Feb 9 · 20:00 · Villarreal vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 41%
A 35% away win. The market says 21%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal41%56%−15
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Espanyol35%21%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 79% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 73% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Jan 31 · at Osasuna (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
- Jan 24 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Jan 20 · v Ajax (H)1-2
- Jan 17 · at Real Betis (A)0-2
Espanyol
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Jan 30 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · at Valencia (A)2-3
- Jan 16 · v Girona (H)0-2
- Jan 11 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.