La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 21 · 15:15 · Villarreal vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 43%
A 35% home win. The market says 25%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal35%25%+10
OursMarket
Draw22%21%0
OursMarket
FC Barcelona43%53%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 47% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 75% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 32% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Dec 17 · at Racing Santander (A)1-2
- Dec 10 · v FC København (H)2-3
- Dec 6 · v Getafe (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-2
- Nov 25 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 16 · at Guadalajara (A)2-0
- Dec 13 · v Osasuna (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Real Betis (A)5-3
- Dec 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.