La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 6 · 13:00 · Villarreal vs Getafe
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 68%
A 68% home win. The market says 58%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal68%58%+10
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
Getafe12%17%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 44% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 83% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 42% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 78% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossWinWinLossWin
- Nov 30 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-2
- Nov 25 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Nov 22 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Nov 8 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Nov 5 · at Pafos FC (A)0-1
Getafe
WinWinLossLossWin
- Nov 28 · v Elche (H)1-0
- Nov 23 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at Mallorca (A)0-1
- Oct 31 · v Girona (H)2-1
- Oct 28 · at Inter de Valdemoro (A)11-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.