La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 2 · 12:00 · Villarreal vs Levante
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 51%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal51%56%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+2
OursMarket
Levante25%22%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 72% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-1
- Apr 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Girona (A)0-1
- Mar 20 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-1
Levante
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 27 · at Espanyol (A)0-0
- Apr 23 · v Sevilla (H)2-0
- Apr 13 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.