La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:30 · Villarreal vs Levante UD
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Levante UD17%18%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 78% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 17 · at Málaga (A)3-1
- Sep 14 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
Levante UD
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v Barcelona (H)2-4
- Sep 6 · at Málaga (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Real Betis (H)5-2
- Aug 24 · at Osasuna (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Espanyol (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.