La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 22 · 20:00 · Villarreal vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 72%
A 72% home win. The market says 66%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal72%66%+6
OursMarket
Draw17%20%−3
OursMarket
Mallorca11%14%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 86% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 34% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 83% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinWinWinLossWin
- Nov 8 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Nov 5 · at Pafos FC (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-0
- Oct 29 · at Lucena (A)6-0
- Oct 25 · at Valencia (A)2-0
Mallorca
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 9 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
- Oct 29 · at Atlètic Sant Just (A)2-0
- Oct 26 · v Levante (H)1-1
- Oct 18 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.