Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 13 · 19:00 · Villarreal vs Napoli
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Napoli31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Real Madrid (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Levante UD (H)3-1
- Sep 17 · at Málaga (A)3-1
- Sep 14 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
Napoli
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Frosinone (H)3-0
- Oct 4 · v Como (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Juventus (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Bologna (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.