Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Villarreal vs PSG
Likeliest: PSG win · 63%
Likely scores: 1–2 15% · 2–3 8% · 1–3 8%
A 63% away win. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal16%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
PSG63%59%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 30 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
- Oct 27 · at CD Manacor (A)5-0
- Oct 24 · at Valencia (A)2-1
- Oct 20 · at Liverpool (A)3-4
- Oct 17 · v Elche (H)0-0
PSG
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Nov 1 · at Paris FC (A)1-1
- Oct 30 · at Le Havre (A)5-1
- Oct 25 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-0
- Oct 23 · v Montpellier HSC (H)0-0
- Oct 20 · v Barcelona (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.