La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 1 · 13:00 · Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Villarreal58%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano20%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 29 · at Lucena (A)6-0
- Oct 25 · at Valencia (A)2-0
- Oct 21 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
- Oct 18 · v Real Betis (H)2-2
- Oct 4 · at Real Madrid (A)1-3
Rayo Vallecano
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 29 · at Yuncos (A)6-1
- Oct 26 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
- Oct 23 · at Häcken (A)2-2
- Oct 19 · at Levante (A)3-0
- Oct 5 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.