La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Sep 14 · 19:00 · Villarreal vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Real Betis26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Atletico Madrid (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-2
Real Betis
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 8 · at Lille (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Levante UD (A)2-5
- Aug 25 · at Valencia (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.