La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 15 · 17:30 · Villarreal vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Villarreal38%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Real Madrid35%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Mar 8 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Feb 22 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Las Palmas (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Real Valladolid (H)5-1
Real Madrid
WinWinLossWinWin
- Mar 9 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-1
- Mar 1 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Feb 26 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Feb 23 · v Girona (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.