La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 24 · 20:00 · Villarreal vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 26%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal39%26%+13
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Real Madrid38%50%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 50% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 74% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 34% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Jan 20 · v Ajax (H)1-2
- Jan 17 · at Real Betis (A)0-2
- Jan 10 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-1
- Jan 3 · at Elche (A)3-1
- Dec 21 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
Real Madrid
WinWinLossWinWin
- Jan 20 · v Monaco (H)6-1
- Jan 17 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Jan 14 · at Albacete (A)2-3
- Jan 4 · v Real Betis (H)5-1
- Dec 20 · v Sevilla (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.