La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Mar 20 · 20:00 · Villarreal vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 44%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal44%49%−5
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Real Sociedad30%25%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 66% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 13 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Feb 22 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Feb 18 · at Levante (A)1-0
Real Sociedad
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Mar 15 · v Osasuna (H)3-1
- Mar 7 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-3
- Mar 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Mallorca (A)1-0
- Feb 21 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.