La Liga (Spain) · Wed, May 13 · 17:00 · Villarreal vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 45%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal61%45%+16
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−6
OursMarket
Sevilla17%27%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 73% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 55% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 63% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- May 10 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Levante (H)5-1
- Apr 26 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-1
- Apr 23 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Athletic Club (A)2-1
Sevilla
WinLossLossWinWin
- May 9 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- May 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · at Osasuna (A)1-2
- Apr 23 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Atlético Madrid (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.