La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 15 · 20:00 · Villarreal vs Valencia
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Villarreal57%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Valencia18%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 8 · at Las Palmas (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Real Valladolid (H)5-1
- Jan 25 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-1
- Jan 20 · v Mallorca (H)4-0
- Jan 13 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-1
Valencia
WinLossWinLossWin
- Feb 9 · v Leganés (H)2-0
- Feb 6 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-5
- Feb 2 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-1
- Jan 26 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-7
- Jan 19 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-1 | 5-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 44% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.