La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 22 · 20:00 · Villarreal vs Valencia
Likeliest: Villarreal win · 47%
A 30% away win. The market says 20%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Villarreal47%55%−9
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
Valencia30%20%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 80% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 45% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 73% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Villarreal
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Feb 18 · at Levante (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Getafe (A)1-2
- Feb 9 · v Espanyol (H)4-1
- Jan 31 · at Osasuna (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
Valencia
WinLossLossLossWin
- Feb 15 · at Levante (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-2
- Feb 1 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Jan 24 · v Espanyol (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Villarreal | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.