3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 3 · 13:00 · Vindbjart vs Flekkerøy
Likeliest: Vindbjart win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vindbjart51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Flekkerøy28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vindbjart
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 26 · at Brodd (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v FK Mandalskameratene (H)0-1
- Sep 16 · v IK Start (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · at Stabæk Fotball II (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Hinna (H)2-0
Flekkerøy
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 27 · at Stabæk Fotball II (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Varhaug (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at FK Mandalskameratene (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Madla (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Åkra (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Vindbjart | Flekkerøy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 78% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.