3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Vindbjart vs Varhaug
Likeliest: Vindbjart win · 46%
A 27% away win. The market says 15%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vindbjart46%67%−21
OursMarket
Draw27%18%+9
OursMarket
Varhaug27%15%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 85% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 33% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 82% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 82% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vindbjart
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Viking FK II (A)1-5
- Oct 3 · v Flekkerøy (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Brodd (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v FK Mandalskameratene (H)0-1
- Sep 16 · v IK Start (H)2-3
Varhaug
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Madla (H)1-3
- Oct 3 · at Våg FK (A)1-4
- Sep 25 · v Staal Jørpeland (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Flekkerøy (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at Viking FK II (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Vindbjart | Varhaug |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.