Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia
Likeliest: Virtus Entella win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Virtus Entella45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Juve Stabia23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Virtus Entella
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Pisa (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v L.R. Vicenza (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Cesena (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Südtirol (A)0-1
Juve Stabia
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 18 · v Cesena (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at L.R. Vicenza (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Pisa (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Sampdoria (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Palermo (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Virtus Entella | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.