Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · Virtus Entella vs Mantova
Likeliest: Virtus Entella win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Virtus Entella40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+2
OursMarket
Mantova29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Virtus Entella
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Padova (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Juve Stabia (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · at Pisa (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v L.R. Vicenza (H)2-2
Mantova
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Palermo (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at Catanzaro (A)3-1
- Sep 20 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Sampdoria (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Cesena (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Virtus Entella | Mantova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.