Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Apr 11 · 13:00 · Virtus Entella vs Venezia
Likeliest: Virtus Entella win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 20%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Virtus Entella39%20%+19
OursMarket
Draw29%24%+5
OursMarket
Venezia32%56%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 54% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 44% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 80% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 76% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 26% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Virtus Entella
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Apr 6 · at Mantova (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Reggiana (H)3-0
- Mar 18 · at Pescara (A)0-3
- Mar 15 · v Avellino (H)1-2
- Mar 7 · at Südtirol (A)1-0
Venezia
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Apr 6 · v Juve Stabia (H)3-1
- Mar 21 · at Monza (A)1-1
- Mar 17 · v Calcio Padova (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Sampdoria (A)0-0
- Mar 7 · v Reggiana (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Virtus Entella | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.