AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Wed, Oct 14 · 10:00 · Vissel Kobe vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vissel Kobe60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vissel Kobe
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)2-4
- Sep 23 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Port FC (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Kashima Antlers (H)2-1
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Seoul (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Vissel Kobe | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.