J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 24 · 06:00 · Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia
Likeliest: Machida Zelvia win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Vissel Kobe34%——
OursMarket
Draw30%——
OursMarket
Machida Zelvia37%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vissel Kobe
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)3-0
- Oct 14 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)2-0
- Oct 9 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)2-4
- Sep 23 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-0
Machida Zelvia
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)3-0
- Oct 15 · at Tampines Rovers (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)1-0
- Sep 23 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Vissel Kobe | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.