AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 10:00 · Vissel Kobe vs Ratchaburi
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 81%
Likely scores: 2–1 15% · 2–0 11% · 1–0 11%
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vissel Kobe81%77%+4
OursMarket
Draw13%14%−2
OursMarket
Ratchaburi6%8%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 93% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vissel Kobe
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 31 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)3-1
- Oct 27 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)1-0
- Oct 24 · v Machida Zelvia (H)0-0
- Oct 21 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)1-2
- Oct 18 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)3-0
Ratchaburi
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 30 · at Sisaket United FC (A)5-2
- Oct 27 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)0-0
- Oct 24 · v Chonburi FC (H)1-2
- Oct 18 · at Chiangrai United (A)2-1
- Oct 13 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Vissel Kobe | Ratchaburi |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.