Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Sep 23 · 08:00 · Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 67%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vissel Kobe67%63%+4
OursMarket
Draw19%22%−3
OursMarket
Sagan Tosu14%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vissel Kobe
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Port FC (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Kashima Antlers (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)2-0
Sagan Tosu
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Iwaki FC (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · at FC Imabari (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Yokohama FC (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Tochigi City FC (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Vissel Kobe | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 44% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.