Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 21 · 18:00 · Vitesse vs Almere City FC
Likeliest: Vitesse win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 44%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitesse60%44%+15
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Almere City FC20%30%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 60% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 70% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 56% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 59% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitesse
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Aug 17 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)3-1
- Aug 7 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)1-1
- Apr 24 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-2
- Apr 17 · v MVV Maastricht (H)0-0
- Apr 13 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)3-0
Almere City FC
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 14 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-3
- Apr 17 · v FC Dordrecht (H)4-1
- Apr 12 · at Willem II (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Vitesse | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.