Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · Vitesse vs FC Emmen
Likeliest: Vitesse win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitesse37%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Emmen36%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitesse
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · at FC Volendam (A)0-2
- Oct 3 · v NAC Breda (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
FC Emmen
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Almere City FC (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · at FC Dordrecht (A)3-0
- Oct 3 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v TOP Oss (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Vitesse | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.