Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:30 · Vitesse vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitesse31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
NAC Breda44%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitesse
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)0-1
- Sep 4 · v TOP Oss (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · at FC Den Bosch (A)4-1
NAC Breda
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 26 · v FC Eindhoven (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-4
- Aug 28 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Vitesse | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.