Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Sep 6 · 17:00 · Vitória SC vs Casa Pia
Likeliest: Vitória SC win · 47%
A 27% away win. The market says 14%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitória SC47%63%−16
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Casa Pia27%14%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 86% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 37% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 82% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitória SC
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 31 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v CD Nacional (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at Sporting (A)2-3
- Aug 8 · v FC Arouca (H)0-1
- Dec 17 · v AVS (H)0-1
Casa Pia
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v Moreirense (H)0-1
- Aug 24 · at Gil Vicente (A)0-2
- Aug 17 · v Benfica (H)0-7
- Aug 8 · at Marítimo (A)0-1
- May 28 · v Torreense (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Vitória SC | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.