Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Fri, Oct 23 · 19:45 · Vitória SC vs Marítimo
Likeliest: Vitória SC win · 64%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitória SC64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Marítimo14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitória SC
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · at ACDR Lamelas (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · at Benfica (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Moreirense (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Casa Pia (H)0-0
Marítimo
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · at GD Alcochetense (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v FC Porto (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Gil Vicente (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at Moreirense (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Benfica (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Vitória SC | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.