Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:30 · Vitória SC vs Moreirense
Likeliest: Vitória SC win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitória SC63%62%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Moreirense15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitória SC
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Académico Viseu FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Casa Pia (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at Sporting Braga (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v CD Nacional (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at Sporting (A)2-3
Moreirense
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 14 · v Marítimo (H)3-1
- Sep 9 · v Benfica (H)0-4
- Sep 4 · at FC Porto (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Casa Pia (A)1-0
- Aug 16 · at FC Arouca (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Vitória SC | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.