Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Aug 6 · 23:00 · Vitória vs Athletico
Likeliest: Vitória win · 44%
We make it 76% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitória44%38%+6
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Athletico28%35%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 41% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 49% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 65% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 52% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitória
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Aug 4 · at Athletico (A)0-2
- Jul 30 · v Palmeiras (H)0-4
- Jul 26 · at Remo (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · at Botafogo (A)0-0
- Jul 16 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-0
Athletico
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 4 · v Vitória (H)2-0
- Jul 30 · at Corinthians (A)0-0
- Jul 25 · v Internacional (H)2-0
- Jul 23 · at São Paulo (A)2-1
- May 30 · v Mirassol (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Vitória | Athletico |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.