Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:30 · Vitória vs Athletico
Likeliest: Vitória win · 35%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitória35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Athletico35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitória
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 19 · at Corinthians (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · at São Paulo (A)1-2
- Oct 7 · v Chapecoense (H)4-0
- Sep 20 · v Cruzeiro (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Mirassol (A)2-2
Athletico
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Palmeiras (H)0-2
- Oct 12 · at Chapecoense (A)4-1
- Oct 8 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Bahia (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Coritiba (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Vitória | Athletico |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.