Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Sep 3 · 00:30 · Vitória vs Vasco da Gama
Likeliest: Vitória win · 47%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Vitória47%42%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−4
OursMarket
Vasco da Gama28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 60% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Vitória
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 29 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v Bahia (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Botafogo (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at Flamengo (A)0-2
Vasco da Gama
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 30 · v Cruzeiro (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v Vitória (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at Palmeiras (A)1-4
- Aug 20 · at Olimpia (A)4-1
- Aug 16 · v Santos (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Vitória | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.