Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Mon, Oct 12 · 15:00 · VPS vs IF Gnistan
Likeliest: VPS win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VPS48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
IF Gnistan26%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VPS
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 8 · at HJK (A)0-6
- Sep 19 · v KuPS (H)0-2
- Sep 14 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v AC Oulu (H)1-0
- Aug 31 · v FC Lahti (H)0-1
IF Gnistan
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 7 · v Inter Turku (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · v HJK (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at AC Oulu (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · v KuPS (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · v TPS (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | VPS | IF Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.