Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:00 · VPS vs Inter Turku
Likeliest: Inter Turku win · 59%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VPS16%20%−5
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Inter Turku59%55%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 45% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 80% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 27% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VPS
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at KuPS (A)0-2
- Oct 12 · v IF Gnistan (H)1-0
- Oct 8 · at HJK (A)0-6
- Sep 19 · v KuPS (H)0-2
- Sep 14 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
Inter Turku
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v AC Oulu (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v KuPS (H)1-0
- Oct 7 · at IF Gnistan (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · at AC Oulu (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · v VPS (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | VPS | Inter Turku |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.