Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:00 · VVV-Venlo vs Almere City
Likeliest: VVV-Venlo win · 39%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VVV-Venlo39%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Almere City37%40%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 68% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 69% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 47% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VVV-Venlo
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Apr 17 · at Helmond Sport (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v De Graafschap (H)3-3
- Apr 6 · at Jong PSV (A)0-1
- Apr 3 · v SC Cambuur (H)3-0
- Mar 20 · at FC Emmen (A)2-2
Almere City
WinWinLossLossWin
- Apr 17 · v FC Dordrecht (H)4-1
- Apr 12 · at Willem II (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-2
- Apr 3 · v TOP Oss (H)3-2
- Mar 20 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | VVV-Venlo | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.