Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
Likeliest: VVV-Venlo win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VVV-Venlo43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Jong AZ Alkmaar34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VVV-Venlo
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Jong Ajax (A)3-0
- Oct 4 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at FC Volendam (A)2-3
- Sep 18 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v TOP Oss (H)3-1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 9 · v FC Den Bosch (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · v FC Volendam (H)4-1
- Sep 14 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · at FC Dordrecht (A)6-3
| Last 10 games | VVV-Venlo | Jong AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.