Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 4 · 12:30 · VVV-Venlo vs Roda JC Kerkrade
Likeliest: VVV-Venlo win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VVV-Venlo38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Roda JC Kerkrade36%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VVV-Venlo
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at FC Volendam (A)2-3
- Sep 18 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v TOP Oss (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-4
- Aug 30 · v FC Emmen (H)4-0
Roda JC Kerkrade
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 26 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Jong Ajax (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Vitesse (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at MVV Maastricht (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v NAC Breda (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | VVV-Venlo | Roda JC Kerkrade |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.