Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 3 · 18:00 · VVV-Venlo vs SC Cambuur
Likeliest: SC Cambuur win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
VVV-Venlo30%27%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
SC Cambuur47%50%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 35% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
VVV-Venlo
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 20 · at FC Emmen (A)2-2
- Mar 17 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-1
- Mar 13 · at MVV Maastricht (A)1-2
- Mar 6 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)0-3
- Feb 27 · at ADO Den Haag (A)0-1
SC Cambuur
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Mar 24 · at FC Emmen (A)4-2
- Mar 20 · v Jong AZ (H)3-4
- Mar 16 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-0
- Mar 13 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | VVV-Venlo | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.