Premier League (Egypt) · Tue, Sep 15 · 14:00 · Wadi Degla vs Al-Mokawloon
Likeliest: Wadi Degla win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wadi Degla42%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%32%+1
OursMarket
Al-Mokawloon25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 36% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wadi Degla
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 9 · at Modern Sport FC (A)1-2
- Sep 1 · v Canal SC (H)0-0
- Aug 28 · at ENPPI (A)3-1
- Aug 21 · v ZED FC (H)0-0
- May 28 · at El Geish (A)2-0
Al-Mokawloon
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 9 · v Al Ahly FC (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at El Gouna FC (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · v Al-Masry (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Tala'ea El-Gaish (A)0-1
- May 29 · v Modern Sport FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Wadi Degla | Al-Mokawloon |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 2-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.