League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Walsall vs Oldham Athletic
Likeliest: Walsall win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Walsall39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Oldham Athletic31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Walsall
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Swindon Town (A)1-1
- Oct 13 · v Fulham U21 (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Stevenage (H)1-6
Oldham Athletic
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Cheltenham Town (H)3-1
- Oct 13 · v Leeds United U21 (H)4-2
- Oct 10 · v Accrington Stanley (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Salford City (H)1-4
- Sep 22 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Walsall | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.