NWSL (USA) · Sat, Sep 26 · 22:30 · Washington Spirit vs Angel City FC
Likeliest: Washington Spirit win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Washington Spirit42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Angel City FC29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Washington Spirit
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Bay FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Orlando Pride (H)0-1
Angel City FC
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Utah Royals FC (A)3-0
- Sep 17 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Denver Summit FC (H)3-3
- Sep 5 · at Racing Louisville (A)2-0
- Sep 1 · at Boston Legacy FC (A)5-2
| Last 10 games | Washington Spirit | Angel City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-4 | 5-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.