NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:30 · Washington Spirit vs NJ/NY Gotham FC
Likeliest: NJ/NY Gotham FC win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Washington Spirit33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
NJ/NY Gotham FC37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Washington Spirit
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 4 · at Houston Dash (A)3-2
- Sep 26 · v Angel City FC (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)2-1
NJ/NY Gotham FC
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · v Angel City FC (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Chicago Stars FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at North Carolina Courage (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · at Racing Louisville (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Denver Summit FC (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Washington Spirit | NJ/NY Gotham FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-5 | 5-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.