Premier Division (Ireland) · Mon, Sep 14 · 18:45 · Waterford FC vs Derry City
Likeliest: Derry City win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Waterford FC33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Derry City40%38%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Waterford FC
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 11 · v Dundalk FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Sligo Rovers (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Bohemian FC (H)3-1
- Aug 2 · v Shelbourne (H)1-0
Derry City
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 11 · at Shelbourne (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)3-3
- Aug 21 · at Bohemian FC (A)3-5
- Aug 7 · v Sligo Rovers (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Waterford FC | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 1-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.