Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:45 · Waterford FC vs Drogheda United
Likeliest: Waterford FC win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Waterford FC52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Drogheda United24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Waterford FC
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 19 · v Galway United (H)3-2
- Oct 16 · at Bohemian FC (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)2-3
- Sep 14 · v Derry City (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · v Dundalk FC (H)1-1
Drogheda United
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 16 · v Derry City (H)2-0
- Oct 8 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)1-3
- Sep 18 · at Bohemian FC (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Shelbourne (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Sligo Rovers (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Waterford FC | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-1 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.